Introduction

Suicide bombers targeted three churches and three luxury hotels across Sri Lanka on April 21, 2019. More than 250 people were killed and hundreds other injured, making it the deadliest terror attack in 2019 so far. Numerous other attacks have already taken place in 2019, underscoring the threat terrorism continues to pose towards safety, security and stability across the world.

Different forms of terrorism exist, including state-sponsored, political and religious terrorism. Methods and tactics of terror groups have evolved over the years. To understand in what ways the transformation has taken place, we looked at the Global Terrorism Database (GTD).

Before we dive into the analysis, it is important to know how GTD defines terrorism:

“the threatened or actual use of illegal force and violence by a non-state actor to attain a political, economic, religious, or social goal through fear, coercion, or intimidation.”

1970s

Major attacks during this period include the bombing of SwissAir flight 330 by Palestinian extremists, along with several attacks carried out by the Irish Republican Army.

This was also the decade when narco terrorism and left-wing extremism gained more prominence in Colombia, claiming hundreds of lives.

The ‘Dirty War’ in Argentina and ‘Years of Lead’ in Italy resulted in hundreds of attacks. Euskadi Ta Askatasuna(ETA) carried out multiple attacks in Spain during this time period.

1980s

Right wing narco-terrorists and left-wing revolutionary guerrilla fighters inflicted a large number of attacks in nations like Colombia and Peru during this time period. Attacks by IRA and ETA continued in the United Kingdom and Spain respectively.

Multiple instances of state-sponsored terrorism occurred in El Salvador during this period. Pro-Khalistan extremists carried out multiple attacks in Punjab (India). Various Middle Eastern factions carried out shootings and bombings in France, mainly in Paris.

1990s

Nationalist extremists from the Basque, Breton and Corsican communities carried out a number of assassinations and targeted bomb attacks in France in the 1990s. Islamic militancy gained prominence in India, which led to a spate of attacks in Kashmir.

Number of attacks in Colombia escalated sharply during this period as FARC gained more influence. Islamic terrorists carried out a number of attacks in Philippines in the 1990s. More than 500 attacks were reported from West Bank and Gaza in this decade.

2000s

With 9/11 attacks, focus of terrorism shifted squarely to Afghanistan. Colombia continued to reel under extremist attacks, with more than 1000 attacks reported on its soil.

Number of terror attacks rose sharply in India, the most infamous being the attack on Mumbai in 2008.

Terror-related incidents shot up in Iraq, after US-led forces captured the country and displaced Saddam Hussein. The South Thailand insurgency also flared up and became more violent during this decade.

2010s

Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan registered by far the maximum number of attacks during this time period, with 19286, 10658 and 10571 attacks in their respective territories.

Islamic State of Syria and Levant (ISIL, also known as ISIS or IS), came into prominence after the outbreak of the civil war in Syria. Since then, ISIL has carried out thousands of attacks in Iraq and Syria, and has managed to recruit and influence supporters from different parts of the world.

In Nigeria, Boko Haram carried out several attacks, killing thousands.

It is important to understand how many of these attacks were fatal. These numbers reflect the changes in targets as well, which we would explore in the next section. We divided the fatalities among different regions: Middle East and North Africa, Asia, Europe, North America, South America, Central America and the Caribbean, Sub-Saharan Africa, Australia and Oceania.

50 Deadliest Attacks

by region

North and Central America: The biggest terrorist attacks in North America include the September 11 attacks in 2001 and the bombing of Air India Flight 182, enroute from Montreal to London, on June 23, 1985. Terrorism in Mexico was mostly driven by left-wing guerillas and later by drug cartels.

Countries in Central America underwent the worst terror-related phase during the Central American Crisis, which started in late 1970s and continued into the 1990s. Deadliest terror incidents include the scorched earth offensives and the El Mozote massacre in El Salvador in 1981, and the Silent Holocaust in Guatemala from 1981-1983.

South America: Narco-terrorism formed the bulk of terrorism related activities in South America, with countries like Colombia and Peru being heavily affected by it. Drug cartels colluded with left-wing guerillas as well, further complicating the fight for security forces. One of the deadliest attacks include the siege of the palace of Justice in Bogota on Sept. 6, 1985, in which 91 people were killed, including 11 supreme magistrates.

Europe: Europe has a long history of terrorist attacks. The deadliest ones include Pan Am flight 103 bombings in 1988, Madrid train bombings and London tube attacks in 2005 and the attack in Paris in November 2015.

Middle east and Africa: This has been, by far, the most troubled region in terms of terrorist attacks, especially in recent times. Attacks by ISIL, Al-Qaeda and other terrorist groups have killed thousands of people. Biggest incidents include the Camp Speicher massacre in Iraq in 2014, the genocide of Tutsis in the Rwandan Civil War and the Boko Haram uprising in 2009.

Asia: Afghanistan and the Indian subcontinent have been worst hit by terrorism in Asia. Deadliest attacks include the mass murder of Sri Lankan police officers in 1990, Camp Shaheen and Kabul attacks in 2017 and Mumbai attacks in 2008.

50 Deadliest Attacks

since 1970

A snapshot of 50 deadliest terrorist attacks since 1970 shows 2 major attacks in North America, one of them being the 9/11 attacks. Central America has been largely quiet since the Central American Crisis. Terrorism has claimed thousands of lives in Middle east and Africa. In South Asia, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka have been highly affected by terrorist activities.

Central American Crisis

Major civil wars and communist revolutions erupted in the late 1970s leading to a large number of fatalities in Nicaragua, El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras. Both state-sponsored terrorism and left-wing guerilla attacks were responsible for the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people during the crisis.

The Central American Crisis bore out of the repression of the labor and peasant class, which had forced them into harsh living conditions.

Rwandan Genocide

A 100-day killing spree by ethnic Hutu extremists resulted in the deaths of 800,000 Tutsis in Rwanda in 1994. Tutsis belonged to the minority community. The massacre started after the Hutus accused the Tutsi exile group Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) of assassinating the Rwandan president.

Lists of government opponents were handed out to militias who went and killed them, along with all of their families. Neighbours killed neighbours and some husbands even killed their Tutsi wives, saying they would be killed if they refused.

September 11th Attacks

On September 11, 2001, Al-Qaeda carried out the biggest terrorist attack on the US soil. The attacks killed around 3000 people and injured over 6000. Four passenger aircraft were hijacked by 19 Al-Qaeda terrorists. Two of those planes crashed into the World Trade Towers in New York, leading to massive loss of life and property. The third plane crashed into the Pentagon. The fourth plane crashed in a field in Pennsylvania, after passengers thwarted the hijackers’ plan to fly the plane to Washington D.C.

Iraqi Civil War

Initial clashes began between Iraqi security forces and Sunni militias in December 2013 after a Sunni MP was arrested.Towards the end of the month ISIL militants entered some of the neighborhoods of Ramadi. In 2014, ISIL captured Mosul and major portions of the Al-Anbar governorate, including Fellujah and Ramadi.

Most ISIL strongholds were freed from their clutches by November 2017. Thousands were killed during the course of the civil war, and hundreds of thousands were displaced.

Evolution of Target Type

Hard targets: Government officials and military

Soft targets: private citizens and property

While in the 1970s and 80s terrorists mainly targeted government officials, the trend changed after security for public officials was tightened. The targets then changed to military and police personnel. As is evident from the trends since 2012, the focus has shifted to personal citizens and property, a category most vulnerable to violent attacks.

Evolution of Weapon Lethality

The weapons of choice have evolved since the 1970s . We calculated the lethality of the weapons used and found that the overall lethality has gone up in recent years. Firearms and explosives expectedly are the weapons of choice for most terror groups as they inflict the maximum damage. While chemical weapons have generally been used in state-sponsored terror acts, Islamic State was the first non-state actor to have developed banned chemical warfare agent and combined it with a projectile delivery system.

Evolution of Weapon Type

Explosives

Lethality for explosives has varied over the years. Explosives counted for a very high number of deaths and injuries in the mid 1990s, after which it dropped. The trend picked up again and reached its peak in early 2000s.

Evolution of Weapon Type

Firearms

Firearms accounted for the maximum number of deaths and injuries in terror-related incidents in mid 1980s. The lethality came down in the late 1980s, but picked up again in the 1990s. The trend remained more or less the same till the mid 2000s, after which the lethality shows a downward shift.

Terrorism remains a major threat to peace and security around the world. The emergence of lone wolf attacks in recent years has increased the risk to private citizens and property.

Even though ISIS has lost its strongholds in Syria and Iraq, it continues to spread its influence in other parts of the world like Africa and South Asia.

The recent attacks in New Zealand and Sri Lanka indicate that attacks on minorities is on the rise.

Not all seems lost though. Talks between the United States and Taliban have raised hopes that violence would finally go down in war-ravaged Afghanistan, although it is too early to say.

Methodology